Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 2.021082 2.157250 2.301647 2.466796 2.651229 2.851767 3.087538
2025-11-23 1.814257 2.001532 2.210915 2.464656 2.767004 3.119903 3.569333
2025-11-30 1.695092 1.912818 2.165375 2.484473 2.883609 3.376019 4.045724
2025-12-07 1.578938 1.810825 2.087088 2.447130 2.914523 3.516977 4.381956
2025-12-14 1.474656 1.712351 2.001442 2.387535 2.903983 3.594279 4.632462
2025-12-21 1.399331 1.642950 1.944792 2.357009 2.923973 3.708427 4.943208
2025-12-28 1.358387 1.613046 1.934664 2.384281 3.021358 3.936772 5.453796
2026-01-04 1.309670 1.569595 1.903049 2.378367 3.069031 4.094465 5.873868
2026-01-11 1.279615 1.548212 1.898442 2.407985 3.168587 4.339006 6.478380
2026-01-18 1.240983 1.513105 1.872681 2.404750 3.217170 4.506385 6.974189
2026-01-25 1.219280 1.499280 1.874731 2.440885 3.327837 4.786383 7.736904
2026-02-01 1.178755 1.457839 1.835843 2.413356 3.334577 4.888655 8.163507
2026-02-08 1.134403 1.410392 1.787658 2.371052 3.317466 4.953193 8.539985
2026-02-15 1.104678 1.382095 1.765522 2.367174 3.363553 5.138410 9.234092
2026-02-22 1.083728 1.365030 1.758463 2.385693 3.448289 5.406386 10.201579
2026-03-01 1.049149 1.327244 1.719205 2.350631 3.436594 5.484187 10.711198
2026-03-08 1.011011 1.283063 1.668673 2.294641 3.383322 5.471695 10.975746
2026-03-15 0.982515 1.251779 1.636104 2.265944 3.376795 5.554704 11.537478
2026-03-22 0.969973 1.243029 1.636850 2.291583 3.471280 5.863968 12.889836
2026-03-29 0.950223 1.223030 1.619576 2.286024 3.506608 6.048521 13.926689
2026-04-05 0.939765 1.216252 1.622152 2.313860 3.607820 6.398342 15.714796
2026-04-12 0.922464 1.198729 1.607298 2.310820 3.648131 6.610910 17.113096
2026-04-19 0.914578 1.194934 1.613642 2.344766 3.765199 7.032238 19.669285